Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin DuvernayReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Ravens
Right now, Devin Duvernay’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-135) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Duvernay to total 6.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Duvernay to be a more important option in his offense’s passing attack this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.1% in games he has played).
- Devin Duvernay has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).
- The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
