Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Titans
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-122) after it opened @ 58.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a more important option in his offense’s pass attack this season (18.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (13.3%).
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has compiled many more receiving yards per game (73.0) this year than he did last year (23.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.97 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
