Jayden Daniels vs Caleb Williams
Jay Felicio
Michael CarterRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Michael Carter has garnered 42.5% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
- The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.
Cons
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Michael Carter has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (31.0) this season than he did last season (45.0).
- Michael Carter’s running efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 3.35 yards-per-carry vs a 4.24 rate last season.
- Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 93 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
