Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Ravens
Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in football since the start of last season.
- The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in football (just 28.0) to TEs this year.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the league (57.2%) vs. tight ends this year (57.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
