Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Commanders
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-102).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Hunter Henry has accumulated many more air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry rates in the 83rd percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 29.8 mark this year.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The Patriots O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Hunter Henry’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 72.5% to 68.9%.
- Hunter Henry’s 7.1 adjusted yards per target this year conveys an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 8.5 rate.
- Hunter Henry’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, compiling just 3.22 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
