Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-102).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Hunter Henry has accumulated many more air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Hunter Henry rates in the 83rd percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 29.8 mark this year.

Cons

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Hunter Henry’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 72.5% to 68.9%.
Hunter Henry’s 7.1 adjusted yards per target this year conveys an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 8.5 rate.
Hunter Henry’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, compiling just 3.22 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 rate last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards