Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The No. 5-ranked Washington Huskies (8-0, 5-0) will look to stay undefeated when they head to Los Angeles, CA, to play the No. 20-ranked USC Trojans (7-2, 5-1) Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
The Huskies are inching closer toward a Pac-12 title game berth and potentially CFP if they can close out the season undefeated. However, it won’t be easy as they have to play Utah, Oregon State and Washington State to end the regular season. But we’ve seen this Washington team get challenged in conference play this season, and they’ve passed every test.
As for the Trojans, they snapped their two-game losing streak last week with a 50-49 win over the California Golden Bears. USC’s defense got lit up again, but they held on as Cal could not convert a game-winning two-point conversion.
The Trojans are 4-1 at home this season, with their only loss coming against Utah on Oct. 21. USC is a three-point underdog against Washington, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Below, we’ll break down this late-season Pac-12 matchup and provide readers with our best bet. Also, check out my betting preview for another tremendous game in the SEC as LSU takes on Alabama.
Odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington vs. USC
Spread: Washington -3 (-105); USC +3 (-115)
Moneyline: Washington -155; USC +130
Total: Over 76.5 (-112); Under 76.5 (-108)
It’s rare to see the Trojans as underdogs at home, but they haven’t played great football lately, losing two of their last three. USC’s lone win was against Cal, but that could’ve been a loss. The Trojans haven’t looked good since Sept. 9 against Stanford, where they won 56-10.
Since that Stanford win at home, USC has a record of 4-2. Over that six-game stretch, they are scoring 39.2 points per game, which should be good enough to win. However, USC’s defensive woes showed up time and time again as they gave up 40.2 points per game.
Now, the Trojans’ defense will go against a Huskies’ offense Saturday night that features two outstanding WRs (Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk) and Heisman frontrunner (Michael Penix Jr.).
This season, Penix is completing 69 percent of his passes for 2,945 yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s also only been sacked five times, which is a credit to the Huskies’ offensive line. The USC’s defense can pressure quarterbacks as they are ranked fifth in the Pac-12 with 23 sacks. However, if they can’t get to Penix, it could be a long day for their secondary.
Along with the passing game, the Huskies should look to attack the Trojans’ run defense, which is ranked dead last in the Pac-12 (172.1 yards per game). Washington RB Dillon Johnson has given Washington excellent production out of the backfield, recording 430 yards and six TDs on 87 carries. This season, Johnson is producing 4.8 yards per carry in conference play and has scored five TDs.
As for the Huskies’ defense, they give up their fair share of passing yards (264.6 yards per game) but only allow 11 passing touchdowns, which is impressive. The Huskies must prepare for Williams to make off-script plays and hit on big plays with Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice.
If you like offense, this will be the game to watch as Penix and Williams will make a ton of wow throws. Even though the Trojans can’t make the College Football Playoff, they can still get into the Pac-12 title game.
Nevertheless, I like Washington to cover the spread on Saturday, despite them being 2-4-1 ATS after a win and 1-2 as a road favorite. I trust USC’s offense and respect what Williams brings to the table at the QB position. However, this Trojans’ defense has been disappointing and torched by multiple quarterbacks this season.
Best Bet: Washington -3 (-105)
