Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-131) after it opened @ 37.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 4th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to garner 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has posted many more receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) to tight ends this year.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards