Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Steelers vs. Titans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-140/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-140) after it opened @ 48.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The leading projections forecast DeAndre Hopkins to accrue 7.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
- When it comes to air yards, DeAndre Hopkins grades out in the towering 95th percentile among wideouts this year, accruing a superb 108.0 per game.
- This year, the feeble Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded a monstrous 182.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Titans offense to be the 5th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.73 seconds per play.
- DeAndre Hopkins has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (67.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62%) versus WRs this year (62.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
