Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential target this season (67.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
Dawson Knox has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
Dawson Knox’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a measly 7.60 yards-per-target compared to a 8.89 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards