Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 71.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential target this season (67.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
- Dawson Knox has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
- Dawson Knox has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
- Dawson Knox’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a measly 7.60 yards-per-target compared to a 8.89 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
