Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Daniel Bellinger from EV Insight

Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards

Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 16.5 (-120) after it opened @ 17.5 (-120).

Pros

The Giants have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Our trusted projections expect Daniel Bellinger to total 4.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
While Daniel Bellinger has earned 2.3% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of New York’s passing offense in this contest at 13.2%.
This year, the feeble Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed a massive 79.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.

Cons

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Giants to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Giants to call the 4th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.4 per game) this year.
Daniel Bellinger has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (1.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).
Daniel Bellinger’s 4.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates a material decline in his receiving talent over last season’s 27.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards