Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Connor Heyward from EV Insight

Connor HeywardReceiving Yards

Right now, Connor Heyward’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-125) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.02 seconds per snap.
Our trusted projections expect Connor Heyward to notch 3.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Connor Heyward has posted significantly more air yards this year (18.0 per game) than he did last year (6.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Connor Heyward has been more prominently utilized in his team’s passing attack.
This year, the anemic Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered a colossal 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 9th-largest rate in the NFL.

Cons

This game’s line indicates a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Connor Heyward’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 81.3% to 67.7%.
Connor Heyward’s 5.4 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a remarkable decrease in his receiving prowess over last year’s 9.8 rate.
With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Connor Heyward places as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in football in picking up extra yardage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards