Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Connor HeywardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Steelers vs. Titans
Right now, Connor Heyward’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-125) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.02 seconds per snap.
- Our trusted projections expect Connor Heyward to notch 3.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
- Connor Heyward has posted significantly more air yards this year (18.0 per game) than he did last year (6.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Connor Heyward has been more prominently utilized in his team’s passing attack.
- This year, the anemic Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered a colossal 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 9th-largest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- This game’s line indicates a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Connor Heyward’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 81.3% to 67.7%.
- Connor Heyward’s 5.4 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a remarkable decrease in his receiving prowess over last year’s 9.8 rate.
- With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Connor Heyward places as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in football in picking up extra yardage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
