Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bears vs. Dolphins
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Cole Kmet’s sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 72.8%.
- Cole Kmet’s receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, totaling 8.06 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.95 mark last season.
- Cole Kmet’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, accumulating 7.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.97 rate last season.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (84%) to tight ends this year (84.0%).
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
