Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-125/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-125) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
A throwing game script is suggested by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Our trusted projections expect Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 4.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a more important option in his offense’s pass attack this year (17.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (10.8%).
After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last season, Chigoziem Okonkwo has produced significantly more this season, now averaging 31.0 per game.

Cons

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Titans offense to be the 5th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.73 seconds per play.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a noteable drop-off in his receiving ability over last season’s 27.0 rate.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 71.9% to 66.5%.
The Steelers defense has given up the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards