Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Steelers vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-125) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Our trusted projections expect Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 4.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a more important option in his offense’s pass attack this year (17.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (10.8%).
- After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last season, Chigoziem Okonkwo has produced significantly more this season, now averaging 31.0 per game.
Cons
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Titans offense to be the 5th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.73 seconds per play.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a noteable drop-off in his receiving ability over last season’s 27.0 rate.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 71.9% to 66.5%.
- The Steelers defense has given up the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
