Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-105) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a huge 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 69.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

Cons

The Houston Texans have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.4 plays per game.
Brandin Cooks has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (72.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Brandin Cooks’s 56.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 71.8.
Brandin Cooks has compiled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Brandin Cooks’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 68.2% to 62.3%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards