Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Eagles
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-105) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a huge 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 69.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.4 plays per game.
- Brandin Cooks has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (72.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
- Brandin Cooks’s 56.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 71.8.
- Brandin Cooks has compiled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
- Brandin Cooks’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 68.2% to 62.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
