Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 5.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has put up substantially more receiving yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).

Cons

The Eagles are an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.
Dallas Goedert has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Dallas Goedert’s 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 43.8.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards