NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 5.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has put up substantially more receiving yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- Dallas Goedert has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
- Dallas Goedert’s 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 43.8.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
