Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-119).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 68.5 (-119) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among WRs.
A.J. Brown has totaled substantially more receiving yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).

Cons

The Eagles are an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards