Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 206.5 (-135) after it opened @ 213.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to attempt 37.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
- The New York Jets offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Zach Wilson has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a 58.1% Completion%, checking in at the 11th percentile.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, conceding 7.02 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
227
Passing Yards
227
Passing Yards
