Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Will LevisPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Steelers vs. Titans
Right now, Will Levis’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 201.5 (-127) after it opened @ 199.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The Steelers defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.99 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 3rd-most in the league.
- The Steelers safeties rank as the 5th-worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Titans offense to be the 5th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.73 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in football versus the Steelers defense this year (63.8% Adjusted Completion%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
165
Passing Yards
165
Passing Yards
