Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 271.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 271.5 (-110) after it opened @ 273.5 (-114).

Pros

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to throw 39.2 passes in this game, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 301.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies an impressive boost in his passing talent over last year’s 253.0 mark.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 70.7% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteable boost in his passing precision over last year’s 64.0% rate.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
This year, the formidable Chiefs defense has given up a measly 204.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the Chiefs defense this year (66.2% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Kansas City’s collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
317
Passing Yards