NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 271.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 271.5 (-110) after it opened @ 273.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to throw 39.2 passes in this game, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 301.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies an impressive boost in his passing talent over last year’s 253.0 mark.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 70.7% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteable boost in his passing precision over last year’s 64.0% rate.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- This year, the formidable Chiefs defense has given up a measly 204.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the Chiefs defense this year (66.2% Adjusted Completion%).
- As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Kansas City’s collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
317
Passing Yards
317
Passing Yards
