Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-110) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for a lot more yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a terrific 70.2% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing effectiveness has improved this season, notching 8.56 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.84 mark last season.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.9 passes this week, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards