Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Taylor Heinicke from EV Insight

Taylor HeinickePassing Yards

Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Taylor Heinicke has been among the best precision passers in football this year with an impressive 67.8% Completion%, grading out in the 79th percentile.
Opposing teams have passed for the 5th-most yards in the league (288.0 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards