Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam EhlingerPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Colts
Right now, Sam Ehlinger’s passing yards prop is set at 199.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 199.5 (-142) after it opened @ 203.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling with backup QB Sam Ehlinger in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to attempt 34.0 passes this week, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (65.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
