Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bears vs. Dolphins
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 165.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 165.5 (-110) after it opened @ 173.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Justin Fields has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.55 yards-per-target while checking in at the 77th percentile.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 10th-most yards in football (258.0 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
- The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks project as the 5th-worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
150
Passing Yards
150
Passing Yards
