Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 275.5 (-110) after it opened @ 278.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 39.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
Josh Allen has thrown for a lot more yards per game (309.0) this year than he did last year (249.0).

Cons

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the league against the New York Jets defense this year (66.7%).
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.72 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the league.
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards