Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts

Jalen HurtsPassing Yards

Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-125/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 255.5 (-125) after it opened @ 244.5 (-117).

Pros

The Eagles feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Jalen Hurts has attempted 37.4 throws per game this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among quarterbacks.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
Jalen Hurts grades out as one of the top passers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 257.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3-point favorite in this week’s game.
At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Eagles.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in football.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 4th-fewest yards in football (just 196.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
This year, the daunting Cowboys defense has allowed a meager 62.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards