Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 253.5 (-110) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% pass rate.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.37 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the league.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the 10th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per play.
- Derek Carr has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (227.0) this year than he did last year (258.0).
- Derek Carr’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 62.1%.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a lowly 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
278
Passing Yards
278
Passing Yards
