Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-137) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a huge 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 69.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

Cons

The Houston Texans have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.4 plays per game.
Davis Mills has been among the least efficient passers in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.30 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 14th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest level in football vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.0%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, conceding 6.06 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in football.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
275
Passing Yards