Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Buccaneers
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 245.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 245.5 (-115) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 131.3 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- With a fantastic rate of 246.0 adjusted passing yards per game (76th percentile), C.J. Stroud stands as one of the leading passers in the NFL this year.
- This year, the poor Buccaneers defense has yielded a monstrous 256.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The model projects the Texans to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- C.J. Stroud rates as one of the worst precision passers in the NFL this year with a 59.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 10th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
