Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Roschon Johnson

Roschon JohnsonRushing Yards

Right now, Roschon Johnson’s rushing yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-125) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).

Pros

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to run on 46.0% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
While Roschon Johnson has been responsible for 19.3% of his team’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Chicago’s ground game in this week’s game at 38.7%.
The Bears O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league last year at blocking for rushers.
With a fantastic record of 4.67 adjusted yards per carry (80th percentile), Roschon Johnson rates among the best running backs in the league this year.
As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Los Angeles’s DE corps has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in football. in football.

Cons

The Bears will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyson Bagent in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This week’s spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.
The model projects the Bears offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.21 seconds per snap.
With a terrible total of 1.88 yards after contact (18th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson has been as one of the worst RBs in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards