NFL

Bets

October 26, 2023

Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Trautman from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Adam TrautmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Trautman’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 10.5 (-120) after it opened @ 10.5 (-115).

Pros

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a huge -7-point underdog this week.
Adam Trautman has gone out for fewer passes this year (72.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (28.5%).
Adam Trautman has posted many more air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (8.0 per game).
The Chiefs pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in football.

Cons

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Broncos are anticipated by the model to call just 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The fewest plays in football have been run by the Denver Broncos this year (just 51.1 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.9 per game) this year.
Adam Trautman’s 63.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates an impressive drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 80.6% rate.
Adam Trautman’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating just 4.98 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.19 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards