College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Adam TrautmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Adam Trautman’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 10.5 (-120) after it opened @ 10.5 (-115).
Pros
- An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a huge -7-point underdog this week.
- Adam Trautman has gone out for fewer passes this year (72.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (28.5%).
- Adam Trautman has posted many more air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (8.0 per game).
- The Chiefs pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in football.
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Broncos are anticipated by the model to call just 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The fewest plays in football have been run by the Denver Broncos this year (just 51.1 per game on average).
- Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.9 per game) this year.
- Adam Trautman’s 63.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates an impressive drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 80.6% rate.
- Adam Trautman’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating just 4.98 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.19 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
