Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-101) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 18.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has earned 83.8% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.12 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Joe Mixon’s rushing effectiveness (3.44 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (10th percentile among RBs).
Joe Mixon has been worse at grinding out extra ground yardage this year, accumulating 2.02 yards-after-contact vs a 3.09 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards