Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a giant 9.5-point favorite this week.
- This week, James Cook is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 13.1 rush attempts.
- James Cook has been a much bigger part of his team’s ground game this season (51.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
- James Cook’s 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year conveys a meaningful improvement in his running prowess over last year’s 32.0 figure.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends rank as the worst group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- Right now, the 3rd-least run-centric team in football (32.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 125.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- When talking about blocking for rushers (and the effect it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 10th-worst in the league last year.
- James Cook’s 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this year indicates a noteable diminishment in his running talent over last year’s 5.8 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
