NFL

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October 25, 2023

Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

FTN Staff

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).

Pros

An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a giant 9.5-point favorite this week.
This week, James Cook is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 13.1 rush attempts.
James Cook has been a much bigger part of his team’s ground game this season (51.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
James Cook’s 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year conveys a meaningful improvement in his running prowess over last year’s 32.0 figure.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends rank as the worst group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Cons

Right now, the 3rd-least run-centric team in football (32.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 125.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
When talking about blocking for rushers (and the effect it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 10th-worst in the league last year.
James Cook’s 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this year indicates a noteable diminishment in his running talent over last year’s 5.8 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards