NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Emari DemercadoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cardinals vs. Ravens
Right now, Emari Demercado’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-113/-121).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-113) after it opened @ 39.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Right now, the 10th-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
- In this game, Emari Demercado is expected by the projections to land in the 76th percentile among RBs with 13.0 carries.
- The predictive model expects Emari Demercado to be a much bigger part of his offense’s ground game in this week’s game (50.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.6% in games he has played).
- The Ravens safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- The Cardinals may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
- At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are giant underdogs this week, suggesting much more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to run on 40.2% of their chances: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 94.0 per game) vs. the Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
