Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Packers
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-120) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to earn 12.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the league (141 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Devin Singletary has been much more involved in his team’s offense this season, playing on 69.9% of snaps vs just 57.9% last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
