Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Texans vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 104.5 yards (-145/+115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 104.5 (-145) after it opened @ 96.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to garner 24.8 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in football (158 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
- The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 52.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (74.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (87.0% in games he has played).
- Derrick Henry has run for many fewer yards per game (88.0) this year than he did last year (105.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards
105
Rushing Yards
