College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Titans vs. Falcons
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Tennessee Titans to run on 47.9% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
- In this game, Derrick Henry is projected by the model to slot into the 97th percentile among RBs with 18.9 carries.
Cons
- The model projects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 1.9% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are projected by our trusted projection set to call just 60.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
- The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Tennessee Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
- Derrick Henry’s 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season reflects a noteable drop-off in his running ability over last season’s 91.0 mark.
- Opposing squads have run for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 95.0 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
