Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Saints vs. Raiders
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 44.3% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 14.0 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has received 58.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 90th percentile among running backs.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to use backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Alvin Kamara has been among the worst running backs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.66 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 17th percentile.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
