Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-115) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- Tyreek Hill has accumulated substantially more receiving yards per game (98.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in football (70.1%) vs. wideouts this year (70.1%).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
110
Receiving Yards
110
Receiving Yards
