Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler LockettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Browns
Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
- The leading projections forecast Tyler Lockett to accrue 7.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- With an exceptional 22.8% Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Tyler Lockett ranks as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.
Cons
- A running game script is implied by the Seahawks being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (just 56.3 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
- Tyler Lockett’s 50.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 65.0 rate.
- Tyler Lockett’s 70.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a noteworthy reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 75.8% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
