NBA Best Bets of the Day (10/26)

Welcome to the second edition of Hoops with Noops! I’ll be sharing my projections, thoughts and bets on each game a few times a week. Be sure to check out the video version of this as well. On Mondays and Fridays going forward, I’ll be offering my previews and picks on video as part of the FTNNetwork.

The season is off and running through two nights of great action. It’s early, so be careful to judge quickly, but there is a lot to be learned in October and November as teams try to gel and build the foundation for success. It’s a TNT Thursday, which means we have two marquee matchups to enjoy and potential conference championship previews.

NBA Best Bets for Thursday

Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks

Current Line – Bucks -6, 226.5
My Projection – Bucks 118, 76ers 113
Key Injuries – James Harden is out

Thursday is Damian Lillard’s debut in Milwaukee, and that means a lot for this game and the rest of the season. Lillard should almost immediately make Milwaukee one of the best offenses in the NBA, but what about on the other side of the floor? Although not for lack of effort, the former Trail Blazer has struggled to guard opponents especially as he has aged, and this is compounded by the loss of Jrue Holiday. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez will still be there to protect the rim, there will be open driving lanes to the basket. This will present a big problem for the Bucks as they face the 76ers and specifically Tyrese Maxey, who will lead the team now that Harden is no longer playing. Maxey has all the skills you could want from a guard and should be ready to step into this larger role. He averaged 25 PPG and 5.5 APG when Harden didn’t play last year, and I see no reason to expect anything less than that tonight. As for the spread and the total, this is a hard game to handicap, so I’ll pass. Both teams have new coaches and big changes in their backcourt. There’s too much unknown in total for me to feel comfortable betting into the spread and total markets.

Bets

Tyrese Maxey Over 22.5 Points (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyrese Maxey Over 5.5 Assists (+128, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers

Current Line – Lakers -6, 225
My Projection – Lakers 117, Suns 109
Key Injuries – Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are doubtful. Jarred Vanderbilt is out.

Despite lots of talk about being ready and focused to beat Denver, the Lakers lost to the Nuggets yet again. LeBron James’ minutes were limited to 29, and Darvin Ham hinted that this is the plan for the season. You’ll see that Anthony Davis scored 17 with 8 rebounds and a few blocks, but he did not play well. Maybe it’s the pressure of going against Nikola Jokic, but he’ll need to be much better as will the bench which only scored 26 points. As for the Suns, Bradley Beal will likely miss his second game of the short season, and Devin Booker, despite playing a great game Tuesday night, is also likely to be in street clothes. Phoenix got the win in their first game but struggled with efficiency shooting just 44% from the field and 33% on just 33 3-point attempts. As fun as it is to see those three numbers together, those numbers need to much higher for the Suns to be a good team. Thursday will be especially difficult without their lead guards and seemingly no point guards available to play in LA. Jordan Goodwin is listed as the backup PG, but he’s an undrafted second year player who was underwhelming in this 17 minutes per game in Washington last season. My projections are close to market, and this should be an easy bounce-back spot for the Lakers especially at home. Going back to Phoenix’s cluster injury at guard, there is a prop I like very much. Kevin Durant is not thought of as a great passer but is above average at the very least and has stepped up as a playmaker when his team lacked lead guards. As a Brooklyn Net he averaged 5.8 APG over three seasons and I expect we’ll see a similar, if not better, output than that. Goodwin will likely bring the ball up the floor, but just so that he can then pass it to Durant who will be the hub of action for Phoenix tonight.