Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-125) after it opened @ 40.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 66.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been a more important option in his team’s passing offense this season (22.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.5%).
Tyler Higbee has accumulated a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Tyler Higbee’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 68.8%.
Tyler Higbee’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 6.09 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards