Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-125) after it opened @ 72.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-most run-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.4% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to notch 15.9 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to be a more important option in his team’s running game this week (63.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.5% in games he has played).
- D’Onta Foreman’s rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, averaging 5.04 yards-per-carry vs just 4.21 mark last year.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
