Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Tonyan from EV Insight

Robert TonyanReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-120) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to earn 5.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 15.0% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among TEs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 9th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Robert Tonyan’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating a mere 7.34 yards-per-target compared to a 8.76 rate last season.
Robert Tonyan’s skills in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, averaging a mere 4.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 mark last season.
The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) to tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards