Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Packers
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-120) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to earn 5.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Robert Tonyan has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 15.0% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 9th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Robert Tonyan has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
- Robert Tonyan’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating a mere 7.34 yards-per-target compared to a 8.76 rate last season.
- Robert Tonyan’s skills in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, averaging a mere 4.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 mark last season.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) to tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
