Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cardinals vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offensive strategy to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
- In this game, Mark Andrews is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.0 targets.
- The Baltimore O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Mark Andrews ranks as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an outstanding 62.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Ravens being a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 51.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Ravens.
- Mark Andrews has been much less involved in his team’s pass attack this season (23.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (29.9%).
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 38.0) versus tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
