Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards

Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (+110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are giant underdogs in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
Our trusted projections expect Kendrick Bourne to total 7.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
This year, the feeble Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 5th-largest rate in the league.

Cons

As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
Kendrick Bourne’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 74.8% to 66.8%.
Kendrick Bourne’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, compiling just 8.12 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.61 rate last season.
This year, the formidable Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a puny 3.8 YAC.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards