NHL Best Bets for Thursday (1/9)
Kenneth Le
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Chargers vs. Bears
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 83.5 (-110) after it opened @ 81.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.6% pass rate.
- At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Los Angeles Chargers.
- Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
- The Bears defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
- Keenan Allen has run a route on 97.2% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- With a 8.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.
- Keenan Allen’s 72.8% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 76.4% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Receiving Yards
96
Receiving Yards
