NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (+100) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are giant underdogs in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
- Hunter Henry has run a route on 71.3% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
- This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for a staggering 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-worst in the league.
Cons
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
- Hunter Henry’s 66.0% Adjusted Catch% this year marks an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 72.5% rate.
- Hunter Henry’s 7.0 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a material reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 8.5 mark.
- Hunter Henry’s ability to pick up extra yardage has declined this season, accumulating just 3.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 rate last season.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
