MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
49ers vs. Bengals
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-135) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- A running game script is indicated by the 49ers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to run on 46.4% of their plays: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.
- The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to notch 17.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
- Christian McCaffrey’s 95.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a remarkable boost in his running talent over last year’s 68.0 mark.
- The opposing side have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (140 per game) against the Bengals defense this year.
Cons
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have only 120.9 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
