Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Packers
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-115) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
- Dawson Knox has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 32.0 yards per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (65.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.0%).
- Dawson Knox has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
